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Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.